BACKGROUND: Because of the considerable damage caused by tomato leafminer in tomato crops, the use of integrated methods is recommended. In this study, the effect of three different elicitors, methyl jasmonate, salicylic acid and ascorbic acid, on the life table parameters of Tuta absoluta was evaluated. A paired bootstrap test and different bootstrap percentiles were used to compare projected population sizes on specific dates. Survival probabilities were calculated by innovatively linking life tables and multinomial theorem. RESULTS: Preadult duration and mortality significantly increased, and the net reproductive rate (R0), intrinsic rate of increase (r), and finite rate of increase (⊗) significantly decreased in all elicitor treatments. The lowest fecundity (F = 71.89 eggs/female) was observed in the salicylic acid treatment, with an R0 value of 13.48 offspring/individual, r of 0.0932 d−1, and ⊗ of 1.0977 d−1. The population projection revealed the stage structure of T. absoluta during population growth, which was significantly reduced by the elicitor treatments. The survival probability of bootstrap samples was significantly lowered, whereas the extinction probabilities increased in elicitor treatments compared with control when the survival criterion was set to two fertile pairs. CONCLUSION: Our results demonstrated that the application of elicitors could reduce the risk of T. absoluta damage. Furthermore, population projection based on life tables is applicable to obtain the frequency distribution of the population size at different times. Combined application of life tables and multinomial theorem can be used to calculate the risk of pest emergence.
