عنوان مجله
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Revista de la Facultad de Agronomia de la Universidad del Zulia
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چکیده
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Ardabil province is located in the northwest of Iran, and the garlic plant in that
province is dominant.Agriculture is considered one of the most important economic
activities that more than anything else depends on weather conditions. Therefore,
the present research studied the effects of temporal changes in temperature and
rainfall on garlic yield in Ardabil Province based on panel data of the 1991-2006 time
series and cross-sectional data of 13 Counties in this Province that had higher garlic
yields by using the GLS technique. Results showed that for each County the physical
variables (the used inputs) in the model (except for the applied pesticides) had significant
positive effects on yield. In addition to the physical variables, the rainfall and
temperature variables had positive and negative effects on garlic yield, respectively.
The contribution of rainfall and temperature to garlic yield were -7.11 and -1.31
percent, respectively. Based on the various Scenarios studied in the research, garlic
yield changes in the Counties exhibited greater positive responses to changes in
rainfall. By analyzing trend at the station and provincial level, precipitation will
decrease and precipitation will increase. Also, by analyzing rainfall, the intensity of
rainfall changes with time. This result is true for the lowest and the highest temperatures.
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