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کلیدواژهها
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Lake Urmia, microclimate change, lake desiccation, urban heat island, cooling demand, carbon emissions, SSP scenarios, remote sensing
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چکیده
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Lake Urmia, one of the world’s largest hypersaline lakes, has experienced dramatic shrinkage over recent decades, raising concerns regarding its impacts on regional climate, urban thermal environments, and energy sustainability. This study investigates microclimate shifts driven by Lake Urmia desiccation and evaluates their implications for urban cooling demand and carbon emissions under future climate scenarios. An integrated framework combining multi-temporal remote sensing observations, climate data, urban thermal indicators, and energy-emission modeling was employed to quantify relationships among lake shrinkage, land surface temperature, urban heat island intensity, cooling demand, and carbon emissions. Results show that Lake Urmia’s surface area declined from 5,420 km2 in 1990 to 610 km2 in 2025, representing an 88.7% reduction. This hydrological decline was accompanied by substantial thermal amplification, with mean Land Surface Temperature increasing from 28.4°C to 36.4°C and maximum Land Surface Temperature rising from 34.8°C to 47.1°C. Vegetation degradation was also pronounced, with the mean Normalized Difference Vegetation Index decreasing from 0.46 to 0.23. Concurrent urban expansion intensified thermal stress, increasing surface urban heat island intensity from 1.8°C to 4.7°C in Urmia and from 2.1°C to 5.2°C in Tabriz. Correlation analysis revealed strong relationships between lake area and LST (R = −0.87), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Land Surface Temperature (R = −0.81), Land Surface Temperature and Urban Heat Island intensity (R = 0.79), and LST and cooling demand (R = 0.84). Future climate projections indicate temperature increases of 1.4°C, 2.6°C, and 4.1°C by 2050 under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, respectively, resulting in projected increases in cooling demand of 18–36%. Given Iran’s electricity sector's fossil-fuel dependence, rising cooling demand is expected to increase carbon emissions. These findings highlight Lake Urmia desiccation as a coupled hydro-climatic–urban-energy challenge requiring integrated restoration, climate adaptation, and sustainable energy strategies.
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